US Importers Must Face Reality: 2024 Shipping Schedules Are Breaking—Plan Accordingly

Part 1: Why Importers Need a New Approach

This is the first of a two-part investigation into the growing challenges in international shipping schedules. Today, we focus on the operational and logistical disruptions affecting US importers.

In the next installment, we will examine the financial impact of these disruptions, including the cash flow implications of extended lead times and delayed inventory turnover.

The Illusion of “Normal” is Over

Most US importers are currently trying to squeeze their shipments through a system that is already under immense pressure. Many are still operating as if their usual tactics—pushing forward urgent orders, negotiating priority space, or relying on pre-pandemic lead times—will work. But 2024’s supply chain reality is shifting rapidly, and executives who fail to adapt risk serious disruptions.

With the threat of sweeping tariff increases looming, many importers have responded by front-loading shipments to get ahead of cost hikes. It’s a natural business reflex but one that has triggered a ripple effect across the global shipping market. The simple truth: a new logistics strategy is needed because the system itself is not what it was—even last year.

A Market Under Pressure: Why This Year is Different

If we take a step back, we see a mix of factors converging to strain shipping schedules:

1. The Tariff Effect is Already Distorting the Market

The mere threat of tariff increases has led to a surge in advanced ordering. US businesses are placing larger and more frequent orders, trying to beat potential cost hikes before they hit. While this makes perfect sense from a pricing standpoint, it is overloading the shipping network with an artificially inflated demand, creating delays at every stage.

2. Limited Flexibility in the System

Unlike 2021, when COVID-driven chaos left some room for last-minute improvisation, today’s supply chain has far less slack. Many importers are realizing that no matter how much they try to push through their usual schedules, the system itself is not capable of responding. Carriers are running at near full capacity, trucking firms are stretched, and intermodal connections are facing backlogs.

3. New Shipping Constraints Are Reshaping Routes

One often-overlooked factor is that much of the new shipping capacity coming online isn’t actually available to US importers in the way they expect. Larger vessels being added to global fleets cannot pass through the Panama Canal, meaning that East Coast-bound shipments must either:

• Route around South America, adding days or even weeks to transit times.

• Divert through alternative channels, such as the Suez or Cape of Good Hope, but security concerns in the Red Sea are limiting this option. 

4. This Isn’t Just a US Problem—It’s a Global Bottleneck

Shipping schedules are interconnected, and when US importers flood the system with extra orders, it has a knock-on effect worldwide. Carriers will reallocate capacity, shifting vessels to more lucrative routes, potentially making it even harder for some businesses to secure reliable transport. Even if your shipment isn’t facing a direct delay, it might suddenly find itself rerouted to a less convenient port.

How Importers Must Adapt

Every executive should be planning for best, likely, and worst-case scenarios—and putting contingencies in place now. Here’s what you should be thinking about:

1. Stop Fighting the System—Redesign Your Logistics Plan

Many businesses are still trying to force their usual shipping patterns to work, but this is counterproductive. Instead:

• Adjust lead times to reflect reality. If your business is still planning based on 2023 shipping schedules, it’s time to update those expectations.

• Anticipate disruptions as a given. Instead of hoping for the best, assume delays and structure orders accordingly.

• Consider alternative routes. While ports like Long Beach and New York are standard entry points, Tacoma has better capacity to absorb additional volume. However, re-routing must be planned early before congestion worsens.

  
  

2. Shore Up Inventory and Warehouse Space

A just-in-time inventory model is highly risky in an environment where lead times are becoming more unpredictable. Importers should:

• Build buffer stock in advance of peak seasons. Late arrivals could cause stockouts at critical times.

• Secure additional warehouse space. Once shipments do arrive, there could be a flood of delayed goods all at once.

• Evaluate supplier flexibility. Some manufacturers can offer split shipments or alternative production schedules to accommodate shifting timelines.

  
  

3. Understand That Shipping Agreements May Not Hold

Many importers have long-standing shipping agreements, but carriers may change routes mid-voyage due to market conditions. To mitigate this:

• Stay agile with routing decisions. Be ready to accept alternative entry points if a carrier diverts from your usual port.

• Monitor vessel movements actively. Understanding where bottlenecks are forming can help anticipate reroutes before they happen.

• Work with multiple freight partners. Relying on a single shipping line is riskier than ever in this environment.

  
  

4. Work With Financial Teams to Manage Cash Flow Impacts

Longer shipping cycles mean longer cash conversion cycles—a crucial consideration for mid-sized importers who don’t have the financial flexibility of major corporations. To stay ahead:

• Adjust payment terms with suppliers. If shipments are delayed, businesses may need to negotiate payment deferrals.

• Plan for potential surges in freight costs. If congestion worsens, rates could spike again, eating into margins.

• Reevaluate working capital needs. Slower inventory turnover could affect cash flow, requiring adjustments to financing strategies.

Looking Ahead: The Financial Implications of Extended Shipping Schedules

Shipping delays aren’t just an operational headache; they have serious financial consequences.

In the next part of this investigation, we will explore:

• How extended shipping times impact cash flow and working capital

• The knock-on effects of inventory delays on sales cycles

• Strategic financial planning to mitigate supply chain risks

  
  

Don’t miss the next installment.